FIG Commission 9

Special Projects - Commission 9

 

Prediction of Real Estate Market Development Using Statistical Methods

by Darina Tauberová, Brno, Czech Republic

The article deals with the presentation of a possible procedure in predicting the development of real estate market prices. The author analysed possible approaches that appear to be suitable for creating a system approach for predicting real estate prices and the creation of a regression model for the prediction of the development of the real estate market was chosen as most appropriate, namely the creation of a delayed multiple regression model, provided the regression model assumptions are fulfilled. The article is divided to theoretical and practical parts. The theoretical part explains regression models, assumptions of regression models and hypothesis testing. The practical part demonstrates the prediction of the real estate market development. 

The author of the research is trying to develop the field of real estate valuation, because this branch is one of the very important branches necessary for the state economy as a whole, its stability and influence on the global economy. Quality opinions can minimize market risks, such as the so-called “real estate bubble”.

The model is also suitable for use in routine expert practice thanks to the simplicity of calculation without owning any computational programme. Thanks to the created model, experts are able to predict the development of the real estate market. The result is bound to the accuracy of the input data, which can be problematic, especially in cases of an attempt to predict price developments over a longer period of time. The novelty of the overall approach consists in the use of mathematical and statistical methods, which are not used in the ordinary expert practice. The model was set for the real estate market in the Czech Republic, however, based on the detailed procedure described in this article, this model can be used in any other country.


Case Studies - Remediation of Brownfield/Contaminated sites

The aim of this working group is to promote the use of this website to raise the awareness of positive developments that are happening with the remediation of Brownfield land and impact on water quality around the world as another way of helping the environment.

The Commission 9 working group invites active involvement of FIG members, who wish to be involved. Our goal in using case studies supplied from people working in this area is to provide a link for those who need ideas or information on a Brownfield issue they are working on. The working group appreciates the support of the environmental consultants, who have provide access to some of their work and websites, but is not endorsing the services of any of these consultants.

The first three projects to be introduced are: